MACRO PULSE
2026 Outlook: Charting the Year Ahead
As investors look to 2026, markets are defined by tension. Our Global Market Strategy team shares their outlook.
From the Global Market Strategy Team: How a U.S. government shutdown hits the strategist desk Get Our Insights >
Smart insights drive stronger portfolios
We leverage proprietary research and collaborate with investment teams across New York Life Investments to offer timely answers to the questions facing investors today in key areas:
Chart of the Week: Swan Lake: The Risks That Would Most Disrupt Consensus in 2026
WEEK OF FEBRUARY 1, 2026
Geopolitical risk is already making headlines in 2026, and our annual Black Swans report is one of our most popular conversations of the year. We're back with fresh ideas designed to pressure-test consensus and highlight events that, while unlikely, could reshape the investment backdrop.
Read Macro Pulse Report: Dog Days, Data Shifts
Searching for Black Swans in 2026 (Part 1)
In this episode of Market Matters, Lauren Goodwin and Michael LoGalbo explore four black swan scenarios from the 2026 Swan Lake report, including disruptions to U.S. public economic data, a potential U.S. state split, political upheaval in Eastern Europe, and a rethink of Asia’s “dollar recycling.”
Fed Independence: No Longer a Theoretical Risk
Questions around Federal Reserve independence have resurfaced, raising concerns about policy credibility, market stability, and long-term inflation expectations. Julia Hermann and Sarah Hirsch discuss why this is not their base case, which market signals would matter most if independence came into question, and the most common misperception they hear around the role of the Fed Chair.
Searching for Black Swans in 2026 (Part 1)
Fed Independence: No Longer a Theoretical Risk
2025 | Trust or Bust: The Next Era of Global Debt Sustainability
The choices governments make will shape long-term capital markets assumptions around inflation, interest rates, and potential growth; and will influence asset allocation.
A global debt sustainability framework:
Private Markets
Navigate the next phase of global private markets
Key investor questions:
- How will diverging rate cycles and policy shifts shape private market opportunities in 2025?
- Which global megatrends such as electrification, digitization, and re-globalization are creating new long-term opportunities?
- Where can investors find the strongest potential across private equity, private credit, real estate, and real assets?
Prospective investors should be aware that investments in private funds or alternative investment strategies are suitable only for qualified investors who do not require liquidity and who can bear the economic risk, including the potential for a complete loss, of their investment. Investors are encouraged to consult their tax or legal advisors before making such investments.
Video: Private Markets Outlook - Navigating a Global Market Reset
About Global Market Strategy
Our team of market strategists connects macroeconomics to asset allocation. We provide actionable insight into market-driving events, structural themes, and portfolio construction to empower investment decision-making.
Lauren Goodwin, CFA
Chief Market Strategist
Julia Hermann, CFA
Global Market Strategist
Michael LoGalbo, CFA
Global Market Strategist
Sarah Hirsch
Global Market Strategist
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