New York Life Investments Flags 2026 “Black Swan” Risks That Could Upend Markets

NEW YORK, Jan. 30, 2026 – The Global Market Strategy team at New York Life Investments, today published Swan Lake 2026, an analysis of low-probability but high-impact events that could most disrupt investor consensus in the year ahead  Rather than presenting a base-case forecast, the report focuses on how non-consensus risks could unfold in 2026 and the potential implications for global markets.

“The purpose of Swan Lake is not prediction, but preparation,” said Lauren Goodwin, Economist and Chief Market Strategist at New York Life Investments. “By examining unlikely but plausible disruptions, we help investors consider how market assumptions could shift – and what that might mean for portfolios.”

The report evaluates each scenario based on its likelihood, severity, and speed of impact, and considers how disruptions could cascade across asset classes. Scenarios examined in Swan Lake 2026 include:

  1. Markets Stop Waiting for U.S. Government Data: Greater reliance on private-sector economic indicators could shift where and when volatility clusters, as investors respond to alternative data sources that arrive more frequently than traditional releases.
  2. Belarus Breaks Free from Moscow: A sudden political shift could reshape Europe’s security landscape, ease pressure along NATO’s eastern flank, and reopen long-restricted trade routes.[i]
  3. AI Lights a Spark in Japan’s Dating Scene: Government-backed AI matchmaking platforms could influence marriage patterns, potentially altering long-term population, growth, and fiscal assumptions faster than markets currently expect.[ii]
  4. New challenges to dollar dominance emerge: The expansion of alternative cross-border payment systems could gradually erode the infrastructure supporting U.S. dollar primacy, contributing to currency volatility and changes in global capital flows.
  5. Puerto Rico Becomes America’s Pharma Reshoring Hub: Policy-driven efforts to strengthen domestic drug supply chains could accelerate pharmaceutical manufacturing investment on the island, with implications for corporate capital spending and select municipal credits.
  6. Illinois Reaches a Two-State Solution: Growing political and fiscal tensions force the U.S. state to fracture impacting state finances and municipal bond markets.
  7. Asia Trades U.S. Treasuries for U.S. Factories: Trade partners could redirect surplus dollars from U.S. government bonds into direct investment in American industrial capacity, influencing interest rates and sector-level capital flows.

 

“The question for investors is not whether these scenarios represent a base case” said Michael LoGalbo, Global Market Strategist at New York Life Investments. “It’s whether portfolios are prepared for how markets could respond if even one of these risks begins to materialize. In many cases, that preparation means focusing on action, not distraction.

The Swan Lake 2026 report is available for download here. For more information on the team, please visit https://www.newyorklifeinvestments.com/global-markets.

 

i. The Suwałki Gap (or corridor) is the shortest path between Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad Oblast.
ii. Nippon.com. Japan’s Fertility Rate Drops to New Record Low. July 2024. https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h02015

 

About New York Life Investments

With approximately $799 billion* in assets under management as of Sept. 30, 2025, New York Life Investments, a Pensions & Investments’ Top 30 Largest Money Manager**, is comprised of the affiliated global asset management businesses of its parent company, New York Life Insurance Company, and offers clients access to specialized, independent investment teams through its family of affiliated boutiques. New York Life Investments remains committed to clients through a combination of the diverse perspectives of its boutiques and a long-lasting focus on sustainable relationships.

 

*Assets under management (AUM) includes assets of the investment advisers that make up “New York Life Investments” as of 9/30/2025.  AUM includes certain assets, such as non-discretionary AUM, external fund selection, and overlay services, including ESG screening services, advisory consulting services, white labeling services, and model portfolio delivery services, that are not necessarily considered Regulatory Assets Under Management according to the SEC’s Form ADV. AUM is reported in USD.  AUM not denominated in USD is converted at the spot rate as of 9/30/2025. The total AUM figure of “New York Life Investments” is less than the sum of the AUM of each affiliated investment adviser in the group because it does not count AUM where the same assets can be counted by more than one affiliated investment adviser.

**New York Life Investment Management ranked 28th largest institutional investment manager in Pensions & Investments' Largest Money Managers 2025 published June 2025, based on worldwide institutional AUM as of 12/31/2024. No direct or indirect compensation was paid for the creation and distribution of this ranking.

 

Media Contact:

Sara Guenoun | New York Life | 212-576-4757 | sara_j_guenoun@newyorklife.com