Insights

FEBRUARY 15, 2023
Bonds are Back to Being Bonds

Are bonds back? The Global Credit team give their thoughts as to why higher income will drive investment grade returns.
 

FEBRUARY 8, 2023
Reshaping Buildings: Opportunity in Plain Sight

In their latest insight, the MacKay Shields Fundamental Equity team believes that investing to improve the energy efficiency of buildings is a cost-effective solution to reducing carbon emissions.

JANUARY 24, 2023
Fundamental International Equity — 4Q22 Review and Outlook

The Fundamental Equities team provides thoughts on what is to come in 2023 and reviews how their strategy performed this past quarter. 

 

JANUARY 12, 2023
Preparation Seizes Opportunity — Higher Accruals Set the Pace

Looking ahead to the year 2023, the MacKay Municipal Managers team provides their top 5 market insights on the year to come. 
 

JANUARY 6, 2023
Recession, Resiliency, and Risks

In his 2023 outlook, our senior macroeconomist Steve Friedman gives his perspective on a possible recession in 2023, what the path for a soft landing would look like, consumer stress, and more.

JANUARY 6, 2023
2023 Macroeconomic Outlook

2023 will be the year in which the full impact of global policy tightening will be felt in force, with growth slowing and inflation moderating.


 

JANUARY 6, 2023
Find Enduring Value in High Yield

Andrew Susser, Head of High Yield, discusses the challenges faced in 2022, the unseen risks that may present itself in 2023, and shares how he thinks about building client portfolios using a bottom-up approach while thinking of an impending recession.

JANUARY 6, 2023
Return of the Bond

Neil Moriarty, Co-Head of Global Fixed Income, reflects on 2022 and discusses where the opportunity may lie in 2023, and what they feel the Fed’s “stepping down” on interest rate increases means for the bond market.
 

JANUARY 6, 2022
The Year of the Bond

In our 2023 outlook, the Global Fixed Income team explains why we fervently believe bonds are back and 2023 will be the “Year of the Bond.”
 

JANUARY 6, 2023
Downgrades, Defaults and Regional Allocations

Michael DePalma and Cameron White on the Global Credit team share their outlook for the Global Credit market, their observations on downgrades and defaults in the next year, and how they think about regional allocations in 2023.

JANUARY 6, 2023
2023 Global Credit Outlook

We believe that 2023 will be a game of two-halves. Markets do not operate on any particular script, but at a minimum, we expect markets to offer plenty of relative value opportunities in 2023.
 

JANUARY 6, 2023
Countries of Interest, Trends and Regional Outlooks

In the team’s 2023 outlook, Philip Fielding and Valentina Chen, Co-Heads of Emerging Market Debt team gives their insights to what countries and sectors look the most attractive to them in the coming year and where they see the asset class heading.

JANUARY 6, 2023
2023 Emerging Market Debt Outlook

After two consecutive down years of total return in emerging markets debt, we are more positive on the total return outlook for 2023.
 

JANUARY 6, 2023
Issuance, Interest Rates, and Investment Process

Edward Silverstein, Head of Convertibles, gives their outlook on convertibles as an asset class in 2023, their investment process, and more.

JANUARY 6, 2023
Key Factors Weighing on International Equity Markets

Carlos Garcia-Tunon, Head of Fundamental Equity, provides the factors they are most preoccupied with in 2023 and how they approach these factors.

DECEMBER 10, 2022
Think Outside the Usual Toolbox

What are some of the lessons learned from the inclusion of high yield corporates and how are they similar to taxable and tax exempt municipals? 

 

DECEMBER 10, 2022
Gain Muni Exposure Through a Specialized Manager

When investors contemplate about including municipals in their portfolios, they believe it’s already covered with their core managers. So then should investors look to be exposed directly to these funds or through a specialized managers? 

DECEMBER 10, 2022
Are All Muni Bonds Tax Exempt?

Wait, aren’t all municipal bonds tax exempt? Bob Burke, Portfolio Manager on the MacKay Municipal Managers team, answers this and other questions investors have around taxable municipal bonds.

DECEMBER 10, 2022
US Taxable Municipal Bonds: Beyond the Basics

Preferential capital treatment, low correlations, historically stable ratings, and ESG friendly credits, have piqued institutional interest in the taxable municipal bond asset class. 

DECEMBER 1, 2022
Don't Judge a Bond By Its Label

As the volume of green, social, sustainable and sustainability-linked (GSSS) bonds grows, the terms of new, supposedly green or sustainable debt are getting looser or failing to reflect current best practices (or both). 

NOVEMBER 14, 2022
Fundamental International Equity ─3Q22 Review and Outlook

The Fundamental Equity Team provides their outlook for the remainder of the year and discusses how our strategy measured up in the international equities market. 

NOVEMBER 8, 2022
Reaping Rewards from Early Policy Responses

We find that current emerging market valuations have priced in negative scenarios that are already reflected in risk premiums.
 

NOVEMBER 4, 2022
What We Expect from the 2022 Midterm Elections

MacKay Municipal Managers consider public policy and the political landscape to be a critical component of the team’s investment process.

OCTOBER 24, 2022
The Perceived Problem

Read our analysis of market pricing and the impact of Federal Reserve and ECB interventions in the corporate bond market.


 

SEPTEMBER 29, 2022
Implications for the Energy Sector

Our Head of Fundamental Research Cameron White discusses the implications of the IRA for the energy and utilities sectors.

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022
Implications for the Auto Industry

Our credit analysts discuss the potential impact of the IRA on the auto sector as it relates to the investment grade and high yield credit markets.
 

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022
The Macroeconomic Effects of the IRA

While the IRA should result in significantly lower greenhouse gas emissions over time, it is likely to have very little impact on one of its stated goals.
 

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022
Will the Stars Align for a More Orderly Transition?

The IRA represents the emergence of a national climate policy in the US, one that relies primarily on incentives in hopes that innovation will drive change.

AUGUST 17, 2022
Why Some Emerging Market Central Banks Were Well-Prepared for the Global Inflation Shock, and What It Means for EM Debt

Many emerging market central banks acted much more proactively, tightening monetary policy well in advance of their developed market counterparts.

JULY 31, 2022
2022 Municipal Bond Market Insights: Mid-year Update

We believe the municipal bond market offers relatively attractive prices and yields, and credit health remains solid.

JULY 31, 2022
Top 5 Fixed Income Market Insights for 2022: Mid-year Update

We believe fixed income valuations are meaningfully more attractive and current yields have greatly improved the income profiles for investors.
 

JULY 31, 2022
Convertibles 2022 Mid-year Outlook

With the rise in rates, we expect more companies will be coming to market and issuing converts. As the rate differential rises between convertibles and straight bonds the quality of companies issuing converts will likely improve.

JULY 31, 2022
Emerging Markets Debt: 2022 Mid-year Outlook

We believe that amid the very negative overall market reaction in the first half of 2022, underlying improvements in sovereign and corporate balance sheets have not been fully reflected in valuations.

JUNE 28, 2022
Forward Guidance: To Neutral and Beyond

In our latest episode of Forward Guidance, we discuss the market reaction to the July FOMC policy decision and communications about the outlook for the economy and policy.

JUNE 28, 2022
Only Hawks go to Central Bank Heaven

Many investors expect the next contraction to be brief and shallow, followed by a robust recovery, because they assume the Fed will quickly pivot to lower rates, aggressive use of forward guidance and quantitative easing.

JUNE 9, 2022
After the Shock: Picking Winners and Losers in Emerging Markets

Financial markets are experiencing sharp declines this year driven by rising inflation, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, challenges to the growth outlook in China and general investor pessimism.

MAY 17, 2022
No, Record-High Job Openings Do Not Improve Prospects for a Soft Landing

Chair Powell has stated that the high level of openings affords policy-makers the opportunity to fine-tune labor demand without causing a recession.

MAY 16, 2022
Convertibles: Why Now?

At 2% of the US investment-grade market and 15% of the US high yield market, US convertibles are often overlooked by investors. 

MAY 16, 2022
Thoughts on Equity Market Sell-off

After two years of strong returns, equity markets have faced a challenging start to 2022.


 

MAY 15, 2022
Rapid Transition to Electric Vehicles Will Upend Global Auto Industry

The global auto industry is on the cusp of a transformation.

MAY 8, 2022
After the First Quarter Shock: Investing in Emerging Market Debt

Most financial markets sold off sharply in 2022’s first quarter in response to the war in Ukraine, rising inflation and expected interest-rate hikes.
 

MAY 6, 2022
Post FOMC Roundup - Clarity from the Fed…For Now

In this Post-FOMC Roundup, we discuss the Fed’s forward guidance for the next few months and what it could mean for financial markets.
 

MARCH 31, 2022
Balancing How to Stay the Course in Challenging Times

Inflation is rising across regions; the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are on the cusp of normalizing interest rates.

MARCH 31, 2022
Hard Truths on Soft Landings

Chair Powell noted that the historical record provides “some grounds for optimism” regarding prospects for a soft landing.
 

MARCH 23, 2022
Speak Loudly and Carry a Small Stick

Chair Powell’s tough words on inflation and the Committee’s latest projections.
 

MARCH 7, 2022
Dislocations in the Taxable Municipal Market Today

Given the backdrop of both geopolitical tensions and changing monetary policies at a global level, we have seen elevated volatility since the beginning of the year. 

FEBRUARY 24, 2022
International Equity Market Review and Outlook

In 2021, stock selection within the Healthcare and Technology sectors drove most of the outperformance of our International Equity strategy. 

FEBRUARY 17, 2022
Remaining Constructive on the Outlook

Yes, there’s reason to worry about inflation and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish pivot. But there are also reasons to remain constructive about the outlook. Here are three. 

JANUARY 19, 2022
MacKay’s Global Fixed Income Insights 2022

2021 proved to be a year of transition in fixed income.

 

JANUARY 13, 2022
MacKay Municipal Managers’ Insights 2022

The past two years are altering the future direction of our lives: where we live, work, learn, communicate and how to prudently invest in municipal bonds.

DECEMBER 3, 2021
Markets Are Still Not Pricing in Enough Monetary Policy?

Tapering of asset purchases gives the FOMC the option of three to four quarterly policy rate increases next year. 
 

NOVEMBER 21, 2021
ESG & Fixed Income - Beyond Ratings and Labels

Sustainable investing—has moved to a mainstream investment approach. 

OCTOBER 21, 2021
High Conviction Ideas for a Post-Pandemic World

While the broad global economy has bounced back from the worst of the COVID-19 downturn, some badly hit sectors and industries offer what we believe is compelling value.

OCTOBER 15, 2021
The Case for a Different Kind of Credit

Securitized credit can offer three important benefits to fixed income investors, including diversification benefits, downside risk mitigation and portfolio efficiency. 

OCTOBER 15, 2021
Stagflation: How Real Is the Risk?

Recent market chatter about stagflation risk is understandable, given disappointing economic data and continuing price pressures.

SEPTEMBER 24, 2021
Digging Deep Into Material Factors for ESG Investors

A look at which ESG factors are material, how we track factors that may become material, and how we incorporate the materiality of ESG factors into our credit research and investment processes.

AUGUST 20, 2021
FAIT Accompli? Fiscal Policy and Inflation Are Reshaping the Monetary Policy Outlook

Prospects for sustained fiscal stimulus, combined with moderate inflation, set the stage for a higher policy rate than financial markets currently discount for the years ahead. 
 

JULY 29, 2021
Will the Delta Variant Derail the Economic Recovery?

Probably not. Growth will likely moderate in major economies, but progress in vaccination campaigns and more effective treatments reduce the odds of a return to lockdowns and a more pronounced slowing in economic activity.

JULY 29, 2021
Audio: New Downside Risks For Global High Yield?

Matthew Jacob, Portfolio Manager, Global Credit Team, speaks to Steve Friedman, Senior Macro Economist, on global high yield portfolio implications.

 

JULY 19, 2021
2021 Mid-Year Market Insights Update

Consistent with MacKay Municipal Managers’ forecast in our 2021 Insights, the municipal market demonstrated significant resilience in the first half of 2021 reinforcing its historic adaptability.
 

JUNE 22, 2021
Webinar Replay: Infrastructure Bonds Webinar Replay

The webinar discussion explores why munis is an overlooked asset class, infrastructure policy implications, opportunities for institutional investors.

JUNE 20, 2021
Audio: Did We Dodge A Policy Mistake?

Neil Moriarty, Co-Head of Global Fixed Income, speaks to Steve Friedman, Senior Macroeconomist, on key takeaways for markets and portfolios.

JUNE 20, 2021
June FOMC Meeting: Short-Term Surprise, Long-Term Benefits

Communications at the June FOMC meeting were more hawkish than the market expected, but align with our own thinking on the likely path of policy rates.

MAY 10, 2021
Maximum Employment and the Risks of a Policy Error

The Federal Reserve’s new policy strategy may support a long and vigorous economic recovery.

MAY 10, 2021
Audio: Higher Inflation?

Stephen Cianci, Co-Head of Global Fixed Income, speaks to Steve Friedman, Senior Macroeconomist, on the risks of a monetary policy error and the implications for fixed income investors.
 

MARCH 28, 2021
Audio: ESG Engagement Part 3 - Negative and Positive Engagement Examples

Given the spectrum of experiences and outcomes in the ESG space, Mark Kehoe and Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo share examples of a negative and positive ESG engagement.

MARCH 28, 2021
Audio: ESG Engagement Part 2 - Emerging Areas of ESG Engagement

Co-Head of Credit Research Mark Kehoe unpacks four emerging areas of engagement in fixed income sectors.

MARCH 28, 2021
Audio: ESG Engagement Part 1 - Alpha Generation Opportunities

The ability of the investor to exert change at the company to improve the risk-reward dynamic, how relevant is this for bond investors?

MARCH 25, 2021
Responsible Investing Series: ESG Engagement in Practice

Many investors fear that applying Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) criteria to their investments will reduce returns.

 

MARCH 16, 2021
Credit Markets and the Rate Spike

Not all periods of sharply rising interest rates are the same – the reasons for a rate rise matter as much as its magnitude and speed.

MARCH 16, 2021
Audio: Credit Perspective on Rising Yields

Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, Senior Portfolio Manager of the Global Fixed Income Team, speaks to Steve Friedman, Senior Macroeconomist, on the team’s constructive credit market view.

FEBRUARY 16, 2021
Audio: Remote Work Portfolio Implications

Portfolio manager discussion on remote working with Joseph Cantwell, Co-Head of Global Fixed Income.

 

FEBRUARY 16, 2021
Will Remote Work Disrupt the Inflation Narrative?

The pandemic has sped up the trend to remote work, which would otherwise have played out over many years.
 

JANUARY 21, 2021
Tempting FAIT with Fiscal Policy

The Georgia Senate election results have upended expectations for fiscal policy.

JANUARY 11, 2021
MacKay Municipal Managers’ Insights for 2021

It may seem bold to use only a single word to capture our outlook for the municipal market in 2021.