Senior Macroeconomist Steven Friedman shares his post-FOMC thoughts on monetary policy and economics.     He also meets with portfolio managers mid-cycle to discuss markets and investment opportunities.


 

“Historical data illustrates a more stable distribution of bond returns compared to equities. In our view, bonds are quite resilient and with far less risk relative to equities.”

Steven Friedman, Senior Macroeconomist, Head of the Macro and Quantitative Solutions Team

 

Focused on Inflation

The Committee’s June economic projections shifted in a hawkish direction, with firmer inflation leading to a modestly higher policy rate path in 2026 and 2027 despite a weaker growth and labor market outlook. And while the median Committee participant still projects two rate cuts by the end of this year, the individual projections also moved in a hawkish direction – seven Committee participants now see no rate cuts this year, up from four in the March projections.